Bitcoin Steadies Near $64K as Fed's Hawkish Hold Collides With Record-Low ETF Inflows

Bitcoin Steadies Near $64K as Fed's Hawkish Hold Collides With Record-Low ETF Inflows

Bitcoin traded in the $63,900–$64,500 range in the hours following Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where policymakers voted to leave the benchmark rate unchanged. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target — language several market participants read as hawkish rather than as a signal of looser policy ahead. Traders now assign roughly a 63% probability to a quarter-point rate hike at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a shift that pushed Treasury yields sharply higher, with the 30-year bond climbing to its highest level since 2007.

Despite that backdrop, crypto prices showed resilience. Ether outperformed on the day, and neither major asset moved sharply lower even though several analysts had expected the hawkish tone to trigger a pullback. Strategists at trading firm Marex pointed to the $63,300 area as a key technical marker: holding that level supports the case for continued stability, while a break below roughly $62,500 could open the door to a slide toward $60,000.

The steady price action comes as a separate report raises questions about the strength of institutional demand. Data from SoSoValue shows U.S.-listed bitcoin spot ETFs have pulled in only about $205 million in net new money in July, with two trading days left in the month — the smallest monthly inflow total the funds have recorded since launch. That figure marks a clear improvement from the heavy outflows of May and June, when investors withdrew billions of dollars from the products, but it still points to hesitant institutional positioning even as headline prices hold firm.

Ether ETFs told a different story, attracting close to $343 million for the month — their strongest showing since April, and consistent with ether's outperformance against bitcoin over the same stretch. The ether-bitcoin trading pair has gained roughly 11% in July on Binance. XRP and Solana funds also logged modest monthly inflows, though both remained in the tens of millions of dollars.

Traders are additionally watching for a technical breakout: bitcoin's Bollinger Bands, a volatility gauge built around the 20-day moving average, have compressed to their tightest range since January. Such squeezes have historically preceded sharp directional moves, and with U.S. core PCE inflation and GDP data due later Thursday, volatility could return quickly.

Taken together, the two developments — a central bank leaning hawkish and ETF investors largely sitting on the sidelines — suggest the market's current calm may be more fragile than it appears. For now, bitcoin's ability to defend the low-$63,000s is being treated by traders as the dividing line between continued consolidation and a deeper pullback toward $60,000.